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Climatology; meteorology; interactions between Earth's atmosphere and its hydrosphere, biosphere, cryosphere and lithosphere; predictability of weather and climate.
I'm interested in a broad spectrum of research issues pertaining to climate variability on time scales of seasons to millennia. My research is currently supported by several grants to carry out data analysis and modeling of the climate system. Ongoing projects are outlined briefly below.
I have been a member of the International Science Working Group that administered NAME. The rationale and implementation strategy for NAME is laid out in its Science & Implementation Plan, available here and in an overview paper on which I am one (of many) coauthors.
My principal scientific role in NAME has been to coordinate the NAME Model Assessment Projects (NAMAP and NAMAP2). The first phase, called NAMAP took place prior to the NAME 2004 field season. It resulted in an online NOAA Atlas and an article in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.
The second phase of NAME model assessment, called NAMAP2, is being carried out to simulate the monsoon circulation of summer 2004, when the NAME field campaign took place. NAMAP2 has its own online atlas, hosted at the University of Miami and accessible via a link from the NAMAP2 web page. We have written a short overview summary that will appear shortly in the International CLIVAR Exchanges newsletter. A longer, more comprehensive analysis is in progress.
I am completing work on a manuscript with Prof. Liz Ritchie (now at the University of Arizona) describing the interannual variability of tropical cyclones in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Initial results are contained in an extended abstract and a formal publication is now undergoing review.
An ongoing research focus involves the hydroclimatology of precipitation across the Southwest. One thrust of this research yielded a paper [pdf] on the joint influence of ENSO and PDO variability on Southwest winter precipitation.
I have been interested in quantifying the extent to which land surface feedbacks might control interannual summer seasonal precipitation anomalies. This research has yielded several papers on snowpack/summer precipitation relationships (Gutzler & Preston 1997, Gutzler 2000); on the spatial structure of interannual summer precip anomalies (Gutzler 2004), and on vegetation/precipitation covariability (a project on which my M.S. student Jeremy Weiss took the lead (Weiss et al. 2004a, 2004b).
We have assessed the climatic factors that modulate summertime water demand in New Mexico, focusing on the City of Albuquerque. Our results were published in an [article] in J. Applied Meteorology.
I co-authored the science chapter for a 2006 report on the potential effects of climate change on water resources in New Mexico in the 21st Century (published by the New Mexico Office of the State Engineer. The report is available online in pdf form [here].
I wrote a short paper on the turn-of-the-century Southwest drought for a volume in the New Mexico Decision Makers series published by the New Mexico Bureau of Geology.
I am currently co-chair of a national U.S. CLIVAR working group that is exploring the potential predictability of long-term droughts. The working group is described in a recent contribution to the U.S. CLIVAR Variations newsletter. Analysis of a set of coordinated global model runs is in progress. Our working group is helping to organize the upcoming NOAA Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, to be held at the National Drought Mitigation Center in October 2008 [announcement].
PhD student Mel Strong has been collecting samples of hydrometeoric water and water vapor from various sites around Albuquerque (including 'sites' above the surface). He is analyzing the isotopic content of these samples in Prof. Zach Sharp's stable isotope laboratory in order to generate a database of the seasonal and interannual variability of oxygen and hydrogen isotopic composition. Initial results were published in Geophysical Research Letters in 2007 [pdf].
... is hot stuff. I wrote an overview paper in October 2000 in GSA Today [online text]. Since then I have also written two nonspecialist articles on Southwest climate change for the NM Tech publication Earth Matters, available online: 2004 and 2007.
Biology grad student Tom Kennedy worked with me to analyze a high-resolution climate model run to assess the effects of projected climate change on Gila Trout. The model results were kindly provided by Dr. Ruby Leung of PNNL. The revised version of Tom's study has been returned to Climatic Change for review.
I give lots of talks on this topic. Transcripts or slides from some of them are posted online. This document is a transcription of a presentation I made to the New Mexico Water Dialogue in January 2007, and here is a transcript from the Nov 2007 New Mexico Water Conference.
If you're really interested in global warming then take (E&PS 352, "Global Climate Change") when it's next offered (probably Spring 2009).
I serve on several national and international climate research committees. These panels keep my frequent flyer accounts full of miles. I just finished two terms of service on implementation panels for the U.S. CLIVAR Program. I also serve on the Science Advisory Group for the NOAA CPPA (Climate Prediction Program for the Americas} which addresses both winter and summer predictability of precipitation and the application of climate predictions to water resource issues.
Internationally, I am finishing an extended term on the CLIVAR-VAMOS ("Variability of the American Monsoon Systems") panel. And I am part of the "Expert Team on Climate Impacts on Monsoon Weather", part of the broader Monsoon Panel of the World Weather Research Program under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization.
At UNM I serve on the academic Program Committee for our Water Resources Program. This interdisciplinary program offers a professional graduate degree (Master of Water Resources).
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